The day has come that every meteorologist lives for. Accuweather has finally issued its yearly 2009 hurricane forecast. Now it gives us something to talk about until the end of hurricane season.
This years’ forecast looks strikingly similar to last years’. Joe Bastardi, Accuweather’s leading hurricane expert, predicted an increase of tropical storm presence from the Carolinas to New England. He was correct in that count - Hurricane Hanna and TS Cristobal.
I think it’s pretty funny that they say “probably more random activity” for the East Coast. Could you get any less specific?
He also predicted a normal year for the Gulf of Mexico. Texas seemed to be the punching bag for Mother Nature last year with three hurricane landfalls. Hurricanes Edouard, Dolly, and Ike (with Gustav in the neighborhood) did extreme damage to the Texas coast. I think he was a little off there.
Bastardi does know his stuff though. In 2007, he was found to have the most accurate hurricane forecast.
This year he is forecasting thirteen tropical storms to form, four hurricanes hitting the US, and one hitting the US as a major hurricane. This is a considerably less than previous years.
Stay tuned for the official 4cast4you Hurricane Forecast! Coming soon!
The Western States are currently experiencing a wide variety of weather due to a developing and deepening area of low pressure to the lee of the Rockies. This is in response to an intense 500mb shortwave trough digging through the inter-mountain west. Below are the current warnings/watches provided by the NWS.
As you can see, a plethora of watches and warnings are out for the aforementioned areas.
On the northern side of the system, strong winds and heavy snows will combine to make blizzard conditions for portions of the Dakota’s, Wyoming, and Eastern Montana. Many ski resorts, from Utah to Colorado are forecast to receive around a foot of snowfall from this storm.
The southern flank of this storm seems to be quiet as of right now in the precipitation department. Those pink warnings you see in the Southwest States and Western Texas are red flag warnings. A red flag warning means that critical fire conditions are either occurring, or will be shortly. Dry conditions already present combined with low relative humidity and gusty winds from the deepening low pressure system set the stage for dangerous fire conditions. A new facet of the storm will show itself tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday evening in the form of showers and thuderstorms. Conditions seem to be favorable for large scale thunderstorm activity across the Plain States. The map below shows which areas are most likely at risk for experiencing severe weather tomorrow (Created by SPC), gusty winds and hail are likely and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
(Note: you can drag the scroll bar to make the animation faster…)
The fourth Bufkit Tutorial shows you step by step how to download and install the comet module and integrate it into Bufkit. This makes your CONRAD tab in Bufkit FULLY functional. This program is sweet and it comes with its own tutorial that is very user friendly. Bufkit integrates its summary into the program so you don’t need to understand all the workings behind the program to start using it.
You know you want to use the Convective Storm Matrix this Sping/Summer so Click Me and go to the fourth tutorial! Click the Bufkit button on the right or use the “Models” tab above to get to the rest of the tutorials.
The Pacific Northwest holds on to another cloudy day with mountain snows and valley showers as a frontal boundary is stalled offshore. The forecast doesn’t call for any improvement in the weather department as a stronger cold front will make it’s way onshore during the day Friday and bring with it an increased chance for valley rain and heavier mountain snows. The rest of the westcoast will get into the action later Saturday and through the day Sunday as a sharp upper-level trough really digs south through the Westcoast States and into the desert Southwest.
The map below illustrates where the cold front is currently situated (Coastal New England southwest to Northern Texas) and it’s associated cloudiness and anafrontal showers.
National Satellite/Radar Composite (13Z)
Showers along the cold front are generally light through New England and the Mid-Atlantic States. Heavier shower/t-storm activity may be found from Oklahoma to Tennessee where there are increased levels of instability.
Behind the cold front, northerly winds accompanied by a large area of high pressure building in from Canada will dry out the atmosphere under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures behind the front are running 10 to 20 degrees cooler today than this time yesterday across the Great Lakes and Mid-West.
The general pattern through the weekend will call for pleasant weather with a large ridge across the eastern third of the nation while the Western States will continue to be unsettled with below average temperatures, plenty of cloud cover, valley rain, and a lowering elevation for mountain snows.
