It’s only March, but preliminary hurricane forecasts for the 2009 season are already being made. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1st. Ok, so what if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts storm activity will be above normal this season. Does that mean Connecticut has a legitimate shot at seeing one? Are we out of the woods if they say it will be a slow season? Here’s what I found.

All forecasters start in the past to make a prognosis for the future, and that’s exactly where we’ll begin. As seen in the graphic to the right, there have only been a handful of hurricanes throughout the 154 year period that made a second (They all hit LI first) landfall in CT. The most notable may have been the 1938 hurricane, most properly nicknamed, “The Long Island Express”. The storm claimed 688 lives and damaged or destroyed more than 75,000 buildings in its path with sustained winds of 115 mph and a forward speed greater than 50 mph.

Hurricane Carol in 1954 and Hurricane Gloria in 1985 were reminders that CT was still vulnerable to the awesome power of Mother Nature and the destructiveness of hurricanes. Although unlikely, history reminds us that we are not invincible to these storms and they will strike again. Unfortunately, today’s youth in CT are most likely under the assumption that hurricanes only strike the Gulf States and Florida. If the every 30 or so year rule continues, the next one is not that far away.
There are other atmospheric/oceanic players that contribute into whether or not CT will have an increased/decreased chance in seeing any hurricanes this year. One of them is the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) phase. The tables below indicate the frequency of landfalling hurricanes for the Southwest and Southeast Connecticut shorelines during the different phases of ENSO over a 154 year period.

After analyzing these tables, it is clear that a hurricane has never made landfall during a La Nina year in CT. The odds for a landfalling hurricane increase with a neutral ENSO and even more during El Nino years. We are currently in a weak La Nina phase, which is not conducive to any landfalling hurricanes this year. March 2009 model forecasts of ENSO predict that the La Niña pattern will decrease in strength and trend towards a neutral phase by late spring. The models diverge during the summer, where the dynamical model runs are consistent with a weak El Nino signal present heading into September and the statistical model runs all hold a weak La Nina throughout the rest of the year. The models may be viewed at http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/.

What does all of this mean? Connecticut is soon going to be due for a category 1 or 2 hurricane (3 is not out of the question but has never been observed) to make landfall. If a storm similar to the 1938 hurricane were to happen this day in age, the devastation would be catastrophic. However, if the La Nina phase holds on through the hurricane season, I think the Connecticut Coastline will be spared this year. Even if the ENSO phase becomes positive (El Nino), Connecticut has between a 3-6% of being struck by a hurricane, so I wouldn’t put my money on it. Stay tuned to my ENSO updates for further analysis.