Comments on: Sunspots, where have they gone? http://www.4cast4you.com/sunspots-where-have-they-gone/ Tomorrow's Weather Today Sun, 05 Feb 2012 21:39:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: Joe Roy http://www.4cast4you.com/sunspots-where-have-they-gone/comment-page-1/#comment-59 Joe Roy Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:48:11 +0000 http://www.4cast4you.com/?p=900#comment-59 Thanks for commenting Gary. I agree with your statements with regards to a large amplitude prediction for sunpot cycle 24. Looks like it's in jeopardy of not happening however. The last graph there is one in which I made myself using the latest data from the website: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html#hoyt One would have to think that the later in time the sunspots start occuring in cycle 24, the less the magnitude of the maximum will likely be in 2012/2013. I have calculated a yearly average with the data and have plotted it as a jpeg if you would like to see the graph out to 2014. Let me know if you would like me to send it you. 25 spotless days in a row and counting... Thanks for commenting Gary. I agree with your statements with regards to a large amplitude prediction for sunpot cycle 24. Looks like it’s in jeopardy of not happening however. The last graph there is one in which I made myself using the latest data from the website: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html#hoyt

One would have to think that the later in time the sunspots start occuring in cycle 24, the less the magnitude of the maximum will likely be in 2012/2013.

I have calculated a yearly average with the data and have plotted it as a jpeg if you would like to see the graph out to 2014. Let me know if you would like me to send it you.

25 spotless days in a row and counting…

]]> By: J Gary fox http://www.4cast4you.com/sunspots-where-have-they-gone/comment-page-1/#comment-58 J Gary fox Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:16:12 +0000 http://www.4cast4you.com/?p=900#comment-58 Thanks for the posting on the unpredicted lack of sunspots for Cycle 24. The second graph of predicted vs current must be a very new revision because the original 2006 prediction for Cycle 24 was for a much larger number than Cycle 23. As the statisticians note: "If you can't predict accurately, predict frequently." The original May 2006 prediction is at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilson2006.pdf Hathaway, the guru of sunspots was predicting with assurance: "Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24" The original Cycle 24 graph showing a large increase has been consigned to the "memory hole". Princeton Junction, NJ Thanks for the posting on the unpredicted lack of sunspots for Cycle 24.

The second graph of predicted vs current must be a very new revision because the original 2006 prediction for Cycle 24 was for a much larger number than Cycle 23.

As the statisticians note:

“If you can’t predict accurately, predict frequently.”

The original May 2006 prediction is at

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilson2006.pdf

Hathaway, the guru of sunspots was predicting with assurance:

“Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24″

The original Cycle 24 graph showing a large increase has been consigned to the “memory hole”.

Princeton Junction, NJ

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